Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
